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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118234
	Improved estimation of trends in U.S. ozone concentrations adjusted for interannual variability in meteorological conditions
	Wells B.; Dolwick P.; Eder B.; Evangelista M.; Foley K.; Mannshardt E.; Misenis C.; Weishampel A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	248
英文摘要	Daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O3) concentrations are well-known to be influenced by local meteorological conditions, which vary across both daily and seasonal temporal scales. Previous studies have adjusted long-term trends in O3 concentrations for meteorological effects using various statistical and mathematical methods in order to get a better estimate of the long-term changes in O3 concentrations due to changes in precursor emissions such as nitrogen oxides (NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In this work, the authors present improvements to the current method used by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) to adjust O3 trends for meteorological influences by making refinements to the input data sources and by allowing the underlying statistical model to vary locally using a variable selection procedure. The current method is also expanded by using a quantile regression model to adjust trends in the 90th and 98th percentiles of the distribution of MDA8 O3 concentrations, allowing for a better understanding of the effects of local meteorology on peak O3 levels in addition to seasonal average concentrations. The revised method is used to adjust trends in the May to September mean, 90th percentile, and 98th percentile MDA8 O3 concentrations at over 700 monitoring sites in the U.S. for years 2000–2016. The utilization of variable selection and quantile regression allow for a more in-depth understanding of how weather conditions affect O3 levels in the U.S. This represents a fundamental advancement in our ability to understand how interannual variability in weather conditions in the U.S. may impact attainment of the O3 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). © 2021
关键词	Meteorology Ozone Quantile regression Statistics Trends Variable selection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air quality; Air quality standards; Estimation; Meteorology; Nitrogen oxides; Ozone; Regression analysis; Volatile organic compounds; Average concentration; In-depth understanding; Interannual variability; Meteorological condition; Meteorological effects; Meteorological influence; National ambient air quality standards; United states environmental protection agencies; Environmental Protection Agency; nitrogen oxide; ozone; volatile organic compound; annual variation; climate conditions; concentration (composition); estimation method; meteorology; nitrogen oxides; ozone; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; air quality; Article; atmospheric pressure; atmospheric transport; comparative study; controlled study; environmental monitoring; environmental policy; meteorology; priority journal; seasonal variation; sensitivity analysis; surface property; United States; urban area; wind speed; United States
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248570
作者单位	United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle ParkNC, United States; North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wells B.,Dolwick P.,Eder B.,et al. Improved estimation of trends in U.S. ozone concentrations adjusted for interannual variability in meteorological conditions[J],2021,248.
APA	Wells B..,Dolwick P..,Eder B..,Evangelista M..,Foley K..,...&Weishampel A..(2021).Improved estimation of trends in U.S. ozone concentrations adjusted for interannual variability in meteorological conditions.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,248.
MLA	Wells B.,et al."Improved estimation of trends in U.S. ozone concentrations adjusted for interannual variability in meteorological conditions".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 248(2021).