气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Abatement of atmospheric pollutant emissions with autonomous shipping in maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118593
	Abatement of atmospheric pollutant emissions with autonomous shipping in maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting
	Liu J.; Law A.W.-K.; Duru O.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	261
英文摘要	This study examines the potential abatement of environmental pollutant emissions with the adoption of autonomous vessels in future maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting algorithm. The emission reductions can be attributed to the related technological advancement, including particularly the improvements in navigational performance and berthing in port, which can achieve better efficiencies and lower fluctuations in sailing speeds. The scenario modeling approach is first established based on the foreseeable development of energy policies and usage as well as ship operations. Subsequently, assessment is performed in five major ports worldwide, namely Shanghai, Singapore, Long Beach, Hamburg, Tokyo from Year 2020 to 2050. The results are compared to the corresponding projections with manned shipping to determine the probabilistic emission abatements with the gradual adoption of autonomous ships into the fleet. Overall, the results provide a better understanding of the future environmental benefits with autonomous shipping to the policymakers, shipowners, and shipping industry. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Autonomous shipping Emission forecasting MCMC Scenario modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Emission control; Fleet operations; Ships; Waterway transportation; Atmospheric pollutant emissions; Autonomous shipping; Bayesian; Emission forecasting; Environmental pollutants; Maritime transportation; MCMC; Pollutants emissions; Probabilistic forecasting; Scenario Modeling; Forecasting; atmospheric pollution; Bayesian analysis; forecasting method; maritime transportation; shipping; adoption; algorithm; article; forecasting; Japan; pollutant; seashore; ship; shipping; Singapore; velocity; California; China; Fulong Beach; Germany; Hamburg [Germany]; Long Beach [California]; Shanghai; Singapore; Taiwan; Tokyo; United States
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248329
作者单位	School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue639798, Singapore
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu J.,Law A.W.-K.,Duru O.. Abatement of atmospheric pollutant emissions with autonomous shipping in maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting[J],2021,261.
APA	Liu J.,Law A.W.-K.,&Duru O..(2021).Abatement of atmospheric pollutant emissions with autonomous shipping in maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,261.
MLA	Liu J.,et al."Abatement of atmospheric pollutant emissions with autonomous shipping in maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 261(2021).