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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118766
	Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models
	Cao Y.; Yue X.; Liao H.; Yang Y.; Zhu J.; Chen L.; Tian C.; Lei Y.; Zhou H.; Ma Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	267
英文摘要	Isoprene is a key biogenic volatile organic compound of vital importance for global climate change and air quality. Previous studies projecting future changes of isoprene emissions showed a wide range of uncertainties due to the discrepancies in emission schemes, climate models, and future scenarios. Here, we use an ensemble of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) to explore the spatiotemporal variations of global isoprene emissions at present day and their changes by the end of 21st century. At present day, most models predict similar emission rates of 400 Tg C yr−1 but with large differences in the long-term trends. For models using the scheme of Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, isoprene emissions show limited changes during historical period but significant enhancements after the year 2000. However, for models using another scheme with strong CO2 inhibition effects, isoprene emissions show decreasing trends during historical period and moderate increasing trends after the year 2000. By the end of 21st century, the ensemble projection shows increases of 21–57% in isoprene emissions with the largest enhancement for the strongest warming scenario. Attribution shows that temperature is the dominant driver for the increase of isoprene emissions, no matter whether the CO2 inhibition effects are considered or not. The enhanced isoprene emissions increase the risks of ozone pollution in a warmer climate. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	CMIP6 Isoprene Multi-model ensemble SSPs Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air quality; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climate models; Volatile organic compounds; Biogenic volatile organic compounds; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Coupled model intercomparison project version 6; Global climate changes; Historical periods; Inhibition effect; Isoprene emission; Multi-model ensemble; SSP; Uncertainty; Isoprene; carbon dioxide; isoprene; ozone; climate modeling; CMIP; emission; ensemble forecasting; global change; global climate; isoprene; twenty first century; volatile organic compound; aerosol; air pollution control; Article; carbon footprint; exhaust gas; greenhouse effect; historical period; predictive value; spatiotemporal analysis; temperature; trend study
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248192
作者单位	Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, 210044, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao Y.,Yue X.,Liao H.,et al. Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models[J],2021,267.
APA	Cao Y..,Yue X..,Liao H..,Yang Y..,Zhu J..,...&Ma Y..(2021).Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,267.
MLA	Cao Y.,et al."Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 267(2021).