气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Surface ozone interannual variability, trends, and extremes in CCMI models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118841
	Surface ozone interannual variability, trends, and extremes in CCMI models
	Zhang L.; Cui Y.Y.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	269
英文摘要	Tropospheric ozone exhibits variations at interannual to decadal timescales tied closely to climate variability. The fidelity of current-generation global chemistry-climate models (CCMs) in representing observed variations and extremes of troposphere ozone is an important aspect of model abilities to predict ozone but has not been comprehensively assessed. Here we evaluate multiple state-of-the-art CCMs participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-1) in simulating the interannual variability (IAV), decadal trends, and extremes of surface ozone during 1990–2010 at northern mid-latitudes. We find that current CCMs tend to underestimate observed ozone IAV over the U.S., Europe, and East Asia in both spring and summer and fail to capture the springtime ozone trends in the eastern U.S. (EUS) and Europe. Specified-dynamics simulations constrained by reanalysis data outperform the free-running simulations with CCMs in terms of IAV and decadal trends of surface ozone. Observations show large surface ozone IAV in summer over the EUS, Europe, and East Asia (standard deviation = 3−6 ppbv or relative standard deviation = 8−15%) while all models substantially underestimate observed IAV by a factor of 2–3. Analysis in these populous/polluted regions unveils that the models significantly underestimate ozone extreme anomalies during heatwaves/droughts by 2–9 ppbv (17–55%) over the EUS and by 7–10 ppbv (42–59%) over Europe during the past two decades. These underestimates in summertime extreme anomalies contribute to the model biases in surface ozone IAV. Future model developments are needed to improve the ability of current CCMs to predict ozone extremes during heatwaves and droughts. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Extremes Heatwave Interannual variability Ozone Trend
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Statistics; Troposphere; 'current; Chemistry-climate models; East Asia; Extreme; Heatwaves; Interannual; Interannual variability; Surface ozone; Trend; Tropospheric ozone; Ozone; ozone; Afrotropic Ecozone; annual variation; climate modeling; climate variation; extreme event; seasonal variation; troposphere; air pollution control; Article; chemistry climate model initiative; climate change; climate resilience; controlled study; drought; dynamics; environmental temperature; Europe; evapotranspiration; Far East; heat wave; high temperature; model; pollution transport; precipitation; seasonal variation; simulation; spring; summer; time series analysis; trend study; United States; Europe; Far East
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248123
作者单位	Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, College Park, PA, United States; California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang L.,Cui Y.Y.. Surface ozone interannual variability, trends, and extremes in CCMI models[J],2022,269.
APA	Zhang L.,&Cui Y.Y..(2022).Surface ozone interannual variability, trends, and extremes in CCMI models.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,269.
MLA	Zhang L.,et al."Surface ozone interannual variability, trends, and extremes in CCMI models".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 269(2022).