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| DOI | 10.5194/acp-20-3725-2020 |
| Data assimilation using an ensemble of models: A hierarchical approach | |
| Rayner P. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 1680-7316 |
| 起始页码 | 3725 |
| 结束页码 | 3737 |
| 卷号 | 20期号:6 |
| 英文摘要 | One characteristic of biogeochemical models is uncertainty about their formulation. Data assimilation should take this uncertainty into account. A common approach is to use an ensemble of models. We must assign probabilities not only to the parameters of the models but also to the models themselves. The method of hierarchical modelling allows us to calculate these probabilities. This paper describes the approach, develops the algebra for the most common case and then applies it to the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). We see that the discrimination among models is unrealistically strong, due to optimistic assumptions inherent in the underlying inversion. The weighted ensemble means and variances from the hierarchical approach are quite similar to the conventional values because the best model in the ensemble is also quite close to the ensemble mean. The approach can also be used for cross-validation in which some data are held back to test estimates obtained with the rest. We demonstrate this with a test of the TransCom inversions holding back the airborne data. We see a slight decrease in the tropical sink and a notably different preferred order of models. © Author(s) 2020. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | atmospheric modeling; data assimilation; ensemble forecasting; hierarchical system |
| 来源期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247886 |
| 作者单位 | School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rayner P.. Data assimilation using an ensemble of models: A hierarchical approach[J],2020,20(6). |
| APA | Rayner P..(2020).Data assimilation using an ensemble of models: A hierarchical approach.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(6). |
| MLA | Rayner P.."Data assimilation using an ensemble of models: A hierarchical approach".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.6(2020). |
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