气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020
	Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models
	Abalos M.; Orbe C.; Kinnison D.E.; Plummer D.; Oman L.D.; Jöckel P.; Morgenstern O.; Garcia R.R.; Zeng G.; Stone K.A.; Dameris M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	6883
结束页码	6901
卷号	20 期号:11
英文摘要	One of the key questions in the air quality and climate sciences is how tropospheric ozone concentrations will change in the future. This will depend on two factors: changes in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and changes in tropospheric chemistry. Here we aim to identify robust changes in STT using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under a common climate change scenario (RCP6.0). We use two idealized stratospheric tracers to isolate changes in transport: stratospheric ozone (O3S), which is exactly like ozone but has no chemical sources in the troposphere, and st80, a passive tracer with fixed volume mixing ratio in the stratosphere. We find a robust increase in the tropospheric columns of these two tracers across the models. In particular, stratospheric ozone in the troposphere is projected to increase 10%-16% by the end of the 21st century in the RCP6.0 scenario. Future STT is enhanced in the subtropics due to the strengthening of the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere and of the upper part of the Hadley cell in the upper troposphere. The acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and changes in eddy transport contribute to increased STT at high latitudes. These STT trends are caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) increases, while phasing out of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) does not lead to robust transport changes. Nevertheless, the decline of ODS increases the reservoir of ozone in the lower stratosphere, which results in enhanced STT of O3S at middle and high latitudes. A higher emission scenario (RCP8.5) produces stronger STT trends, with increases in tropospheric column O3S more than 3 times larger than those in the RCP6.0 scenario by the end of the 21st century. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air quality; atmospheric chemistry; climate change; climate modeling; concentration (composition); future prospect; ozone; stratosphere-troposphere interaction; trend analysis
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247720
作者单位	Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canada; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia; ARC Center of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abalos M.,Orbe C.,Kinnison D.E.,et al. Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models[J],2020,20(11).
APA	Abalos M..,Orbe C..,Kinnison D.E..,Plummer D..,Oman L.D..,...&Dameris M..(2020).Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(11).
MLA	Abalos M.,et al."Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.11(2020).