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DOI | 10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020 |
Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States | |
Li Y.; Mickley L.J.; Liu P.; Kaplan J.O. | |
发表日期 | 2020 |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
起始页码 | 8827 |
结束页码 | 8838 |
卷号 | 20期号:14 |
英文摘要 | Almost USD 3 billion per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the western United States, with a consequent increase in the number and size of wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused wildfires in the national forests and parks of the western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ1/453/span> % by the late 21st century during the fire season in the national forests and parks of the western United States. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows enhanced lightning-caused fire activity, especially over forests in the northern states. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | air quality; climate change; climate effect; concentration (composition); forest fire; lightning; national park; twenty first century; wildfire; United States |
来源期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247619 |
作者单位 | John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li Y.,Mickley L.J.,Liu P.,et al. Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States[J],2020,20(14). |
APA | Li Y.,Mickley L.J.,Liu P.,&Kaplan J.O..(2020).Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(14). |
MLA | Li Y.,et al."Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.14(2020). |
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