气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020
	Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883
	Polvani L.M.; Camargo S.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	13687
结束页码	13700
卷号	20 期号:22
英文摘要	A recent study has presented compelling new evidence suggesting that the observed Eurasian warming in the winter following the 1992 Pinatubo eruption was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere. Building on that study, we turn our attention to the only other low-latitude eruption in the instrumental period with a comparably large magnitude: the Krakatau eruption of August 1883. We study the temperature anomalies in the first winter following that eruption in detail, analyzing (1) observations, (2) reanalyses, and (3) models. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, the observed post- Krakatau winter warming over Eurasia was unremarkable (only between 1σ and 2σ of the distribution from 1850 to present). Second, reanalyses based on assimilating surface pressure alone indicate the existence of very large uncertainties, so much so that a Eurasian cooling is not incompatible with those reanalyses. Third, models robustly show the complete absence of a volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming: here, we analyze both a 100-member initial-condition ensemble and 140 simulations from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This wealth of evidence strongly suggests that, as in the case of Pinatubo, the observed warming over Eurasia in the winter of 1883-84 was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the Krakatau eruption. This, taken together with a similar result for Pinatubo, leads us to conclude that if volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming exists at all, an eruption with a magnitude far exceeding these two events would be needed to produce a detectable surface warming. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate forcing; CMIP; global warming; temperature anomaly; volcanic aerosol; volcanic eruption; winter; Eurasia; Krakatau; Lampung
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247372
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Polvani L.M.,Camargo S.J.. Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883[J],2020,20(22).
APA	Polvani L.M.,&Camargo S.J..(2020).Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(22).
MLA	Polvani L.M.,et al."Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.22(2020).