气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol

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DOI	10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021
	An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol
	Wilka C.; Solomon S.; Kinnison D.; Tarasick D.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	15771
结束页码	15781
卷号	21 期号:20
英文摘要	Without the Montreal Protocol, the already extreme Arctic ozone losses in the boreal spring of 2020 would be expected to have produced an Antarctic-like ozone hole, based upon simulations performed using the specified dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and using an alternate emission scenario of 3.5g% growth in ozone-depleting substances from 1985 onwards. In particular, we find that the area of total ozone below 220gDU (Dobson units), a standard metric of Antarctic ozone hole size, would have covered about 20gmilliongkm2. Record observed local lows of 0.1gppmv (parts per million by volume) at some altitudes in the lower stratosphere seen by ozonesondes in March 2020 would have reached 0.01, again similar to the Antarctic. Spring ozone depletion would have begun earlier and lasted longer without the Montreal Protocol, and by 2020, the year-round ozone depletion would have begun to dramatically diverge from the observed case. This extreme year also provides an opportunity to test parameterizations of polar stratospheric cloud impacts on denitrification and, thereby, to improve stratospheric models of both the real world and alternate scenarios. In particular, we find that decreasing the parameterized nitric acid trihydrate number density in SD-WACCM, which subsequently increases denitrification, improves the agreement with observations for both nitric acid and ozone. This study reinforces that the historically extreme 2020 Arctic ozone depletion is not cause for concern over the Montreal Protocol's effectiveness but rather demonstrates that the Montreal Protocol indeed merits celebration for avoiding an Arctic ozone hole. © 2021 Catherine Wilka et al.
语种	英语
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246481
作者单位	Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wilka C.,Solomon S.,Kinnison D.,et al. An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol[J],2021,21(20).
APA	Wilka C.,Solomon S.,Kinnison D.,&Tarasick D..(2021).An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(20).
MLA	Wilka C.,et al."An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.20(2021).