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| DOI | 10.1126/science.1103934 |
| The climate change commitment | |
| Wigley T.M.L. | |
| 发表日期 | 2005 |
| ISSN | 0036-8075 |
| 起始页码 | 1766 |
| 结束页码 | 1769 |
| 卷号 | 307期号:5716 |
| 英文摘要 | Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1°C. The CE warming commitment is 2° to 6°C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid. |
| 英文关键词 | Atmospheric composition; Global warming; Particulate emissions; Sea level; Temperature distribution; Constant-composition (CC); Constant-emissions (CE); Global-mean temperature; Oceanic thermal inertia; Climate change; climate change; global warming; sea level change; air pollution control; article; atmosphere; climate change; greenhouse effect; priority journal; sea level; sea level rise |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Science
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246024 |
| 作者单位 | Natl. Ctr. for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wigley T.M.L.. The climate change commitment[J],2005,307(5716). |
| APA | Wigley T.M.L..(2005).The climate change commitment.Science,307(5716). |
| MLA | Wigley T.M.L.."The climate change commitment".Science 307.5716(2005). |
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