气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent

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DOI	10.1126/science.286.5446.1934
	Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent
	Vinnikov K.Y.; Robock A.; Stouffer R.J.; Walsh J.E.; Parkinson C.L.; Cavalieri D.J.; Mitchell J.F.B.; Garrett D.; Zakharov V.F.
发表日期	1999
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	1934
结束页码	1937
卷号	286 期号:5446
英文摘要	Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.
英文关键词	ice; sea water; global warming; ice cover; Northern Hemisphere; sea ice; article; atmosphere; global climate; greenhouse effect; oceanic regions; priority journal; thermodynamics; warming
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245868
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers - State Univ. of New Jersey, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551, United States; Geophys. Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Natl. Oceanic and Atmosph. Admin., Post Office Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, 105 South Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Code 971, Oceans and Ice Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States; Hadley Ctr. Climate Prediction Res., Meteorological Office, Bracknell, RG12 2SZ, United Kingdom; Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service, Natl. Centers Environ. Prediction, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746, United States; Arctic and Antarctic Res. Institute, 38 Bering Street, St. Petersburg 199397, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vinnikov K.Y.,Robock A.,Stouffer R.J.,et al. Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent[J],1999,286(5446).
APA	Vinnikov K.Y..,Robock A..,Stouffer R.J..,Walsh J.E..,Parkinson C.L..,...&Zakharov V.F..(1999).Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent.Science,286(5446).
MLA	Vinnikov K.Y.,et al."Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent".Science 286.5446(1999).