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DOI | 10.1126/science.aaa4984 |
Accelerating extinction risk from climate change | |
Urban M.C. | |
发表日期 | 2015 |
ISSN | 0036-8075 |
起始页码 | 571 |
结束页码 | 573 |
卷号 | 348期号:6234 |
英文摘要 | Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. |
英文关键词 | climate change; dispersal; extinction risk; geographical distribution; taxonomy; Article; Australia and New Zealand; climate; climate change; endemic species; human; priority journal; South America; species distribution; species extinction; temperature; animal; Australia; climate change; heat; New Zealand; risk; statistics and numerical data; uncertainty; Australia; New Zealand; South America; Animals; Australia; Climate Change; Extinction, Biological; Hot Temperature; New Zealand; Risk; South America; Uncertainty |
语种 | 英语 |
来源期刊 | Science |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245805 |
作者单位 | Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, Storrs, CT 06269, United States |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Urban M.C.. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change[J],2015,348(6234). |
APA | Urban M.C..(2015).Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.Science,348(6234). |
MLA | Urban M.C.."Accelerating extinction risk from climate change".Science 348.6234(2015). |
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