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DOI10.1126/science.aaa4984
Accelerating extinction risk from climate change
Urban M.C.
发表日期2015
ISSN0036-8075
起始页码571
结束页码573
卷号348期号:6234
英文摘要Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.
英文关键词climate change; dispersal; extinction risk; geographical distribution; taxonomy; Article; Australia and New Zealand; climate; climate change; endemic species; human; priority journal; South America; species distribution; species extinction; temperature; animal; Australia; climate change; heat; New Zealand; risk; statistics and numerical data; uncertainty; Australia; New Zealand; South America; Animals; Australia; Climate Change; Extinction, Biological; Hot Temperature; New Zealand; Risk; South America; Uncertainty
语种英语
来源期刊Science
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245805
作者单位Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, Storrs, CT 06269, United States
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Urban M.C.. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change[J],2015,348(6234).
APA Urban M.C..(2015).Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.Science,348(6234).
MLA Urban M.C.."Accelerating extinction risk from climate change".Science 348.6234(2015).
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