气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

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DOI	10.1126/science.aah7393
	More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks
	Tippett M.K.; Lepore C.; Cohen J.E.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	1419
结束页码	1423
卷号	354 期号:6318
英文摘要	Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks.We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright 2016 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved.
英文关键词	cost analysis; extreme event; global warming; numerical model; population outbreak; thunderstorm; tornado; trend analysis; Article; climate change; environment; greenhouse effect; priority journal; tornado; United States; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245759
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University, New York, NY 10065, United States; Earth Institute and Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tippett M.K.,Lepore C.,Cohen J.E.. More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks[J],2016,354(6318).
APA	Tippett M.K.,Lepore C.,&Cohen J.E..(2016).More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.Science,354(6318).
MLA	Tippett M.K.,et al."More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks".Science 354.6318(2016).