气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detecting causality in complex ecosystems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.1227079
	Detecting causality in complex ecosystems
	Sugihara G.; May R.; Ye H.; Hsieh C.-H.; Deyle E.; Fogarty M.; Munch S.
发表日期	2012
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	496
结束页码	500
卷号	338 期号:6106
英文摘要	Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, and much else. We introduce a method, based on nonlinear state space reconstruction, that can distinguish causality from correlation. It extends to nonseparable weakly connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by the current Granger causality paradigm). The approach is illustrated both by simple models (where, in contrast to the real world, we know the underlying equations/relations and so can check the validity of our method) and by application to real ecological systems, including the controversial sardine-anchovy-temperature problem.
英文关键词	correlation; ecosystem modeling; epidemiology; financial policy; Granger causality test; nonlinearity; algorithm; anchovy; article; ecology; ecosystem; epidemiology; policy; prediction; priority journal; sardine; Engraulidae
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245673
作者单位	Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, San Diego, CA 92093, United States; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom; Institute of Oceanography, Institute of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan; Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States; Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 110 Shaffer Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sugihara G.,May R.,Ye H.,et al. Detecting causality in complex ecosystems[J],2012,338(6106).
APA	Sugihara G..,May R..,Ye H..,Hsieh C.-H..,Deyle E..,...&Munch S..(2012).Detecting causality in complex ecosystems.Science,338(6106).
MLA	Sugihara G.,et al."Detecting causality in complex ecosystems".Science 338.6106(2012).