Climate Change Data Portal
| DOI | 10.1126/science.263.5145.341 |
| Detecting climatic change signals: Are there any "fingerprints"? | |
| Schneider S.H. | |
| 发表日期 | 1994 |
| ISSN | 0036-8075 |
| 起始页码 | 341 |
| 结束页码 | 347 |
| 卷号 | 263期号:5145 |
| 英文摘要 | Projected changes in the Earth's climate can be driven from a combined set of forcing factors consisting of regionally heterogeneous anthropogenic and natural aerosols and land use changes, as well as global-scale influences from solar variability and transient increases in human-produced greenhouse gases. Thus, validation of climate model projections that are driven only by increases in greenhouse gases can be inconsistent when one attempts the validation by looking for a regional or time-evolving "fingerprint" of such projected changes in real climatic data. Until climate models are driven by time-evolving, combined, multiple, and heterogeneous forcing factors, the best global climatic change "fingerprint" will probably remain a many-decades average of hemispheric- to global-scale trends in surface air temperatures. Century-long global warming (or cooling) trends of 0.5°C appear to have occurred infrequently over the past several thousand years-perhaps only once or twice a millennium, as proxy records suggest. This implies an 80 to 90 percent heuristic likelihood that the 20th-century 0.5±0.2°C warming trend is not a wholly natural climatic fluctuation. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Science
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245385 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Biological Sciences, Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schneider S.H.. Detecting climatic change signals: Are there any "fingerprints"?[J],1994,263(5145). |
| APA | Schneider S.H..(1994).Detecting climatic change signals: Are there any "fingerprints"?.Science,263(5145). |
| MLA | Schneider S.H.."Detecting climatic change signals: Are there any "fingerprints"?".Science 263.5145(1994). |
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