气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

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DOI	10.1126/science.1203513
	Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum
	Schmittner A.; Urban N.M.; Shakun J.D.; Mahowald N.M.; Clark P.U.; Bartlein P.J.; Mix A.C.; Rosell-Melé A.
发表日期	2011
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	1385
结束页码	1388
卷号	334 期号:6061
英文摘要	Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
英文关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; climate effect; climate variation; land surface; Last Glacial Maximum; paleoclimate; probability; reconstruction; sea surface temperature; article; climate change; continental ice; dust; feedback system; greenhouse gas; land surface temperature; last glacial maximum; priority journal; sea surface temperature; simulation; temperature; water vapor
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245379
作者单位	College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-5503, United States; Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, United States; Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States; Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, United States; InstitucióCatalana de Recerca I Estudis Avançats, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schmittner A.,Urban N.M.,Shakun J.D.,et al. Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum[J],2011,334(6061).
APA	Schmittner A..,Urban N.M..,Shakun J.D..,Mahowald N.M..,Clark P.U..,...&Rosell-Melé A..(2011).Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum.Science,334(6061).
MLA	Schmittner A.,et al."Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum".Science 334.6061(2011).