气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.aav6634
	Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model
	Park J.-Y.; Stock C.A.; Dunne J.P.; Yang X.; Rosati A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	284
结束页码	288
卷号	365 期号:6450
英文摘要	Climate variations have a profound impact on marine ecosystems and the communities that depend upon them. Anticipating ecosystem shifts using global Earth system models (ESMs) could enable communities to adapt to climate fluctuations and contribute to long-term ecosystem resilience. We show that newly developed ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions can skillfully predict satellite-derived seasonal to multiannual chlorophyll fluctuations in many regions. Prediction skill arises primarily from successfully simulating the chlorophyll response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and capturing the winter reemergence of subsurface nutrient anomalies in the extratropics, which subsequently affect spring and summer chlorophyll concentrations. Further investigations suggest that interannual fish-catch variations in selected large marine ecosystems can be anticipated from predicted chlorophyll and sea surface temperature anomalies. This result, together with high predictability for other marine-resource-relevant biogeochemical properties (e.g., oxygen, primary production), suggests a role for ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions in dynamic marine resource management efforts. © 2019 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	chlorophyll; chlorophyll; annual variation; chlorophyll; climate conditions; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; marine ecosystem; model; prediction; sea surface temperature; seasonality; Article; biogeochemistry; chlorophyll content; climate change; data processing; ecosystem monitoring; ecosystem resilience; El Nino; global earth system model; marine environment; prediction; priority journal; satellite imagery; sea surface temperature; simulation; winter; animal; fish; forecasting; metabolism; sea; season; Animals; Chlorophyll; Earth, Planet; Fishes; Forecasting; Oceans and Seas; Seasons
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/244998
作者单位	Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju-si, Jeollabuk-do, 54896, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Park J.-Y.,Stock C.A.,Dunne J.P.,et al. Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model[J],2019,365(6450).
APA	Park J.-Y.,Stock C.A.,Dunne J.P.,Yang X.,&Rosati A..(2019).Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model.Science,365(6450).
MLA	Park J.-Y.,et al."Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model".Science 365.6450(2019).