气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: Comparisons with the past

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DOI	10.1126/science.254.5032.692
	Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: Comparisons with the past
	Overpeck J.T.; Bartlein P.J.; Webb III T.
发表日期	1991
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	692
结束页码	695
卷号	254 期号:5032
英文摘要	Increases in atmospheric trace gas concentrations could warm the global average temperature 1.5° to 4.5°C by the end of the next century. Application of climate-pollen response surfaces to three climate model simulations of doubled preindustrial atmospheric CO2 levels shows that the change in the equilibrium distribution of natural vegetation over eastern North America over the next 200 to 500 years could be larger than the overall change during the past 7,000 to 10,000 years and equivalent to the change that took place over the 1,000- to 3,000-year period of most rapid deglaciation. Some plant ranges and abundance maxima could shift as much as 500 to 1000 km during the next 200 to 500 years; such changes would have dramatic impacts on silvicultural and natural ecosystems. Although unprecedented vegetation change is likely if climate changes as predicted, forecasting the exact timing and patterns of change will be difficult.
英文关键词	climatic change; greenhouse effect; vegetation change; North America, (East)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/244968
作者单位	Paleoclimatology Program, National Geophysical Data Center, Natl. Oceanic and Atmosph. Admin., 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303, United States; Lamont-Doherty Geol. Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, United States; Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Overpeck J.T.,Bartlein P.J.,Webb III T.. Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: Comparisons with the past[J],1991,254(5032).
APA	Overpeck J.T.,Bartlein P.J.,&Webb III T..(1991).Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: Comparisons with the past.Science,254(5032).
MLA	Overpeck J.T.,et al."Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: Comparisons with the past".Science 254.5032(1991).