气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.aao0432
	Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations
	Missirian A.; Schlenker W.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	1610
结束页码	1614
卷号	358 期号:6370
英文摘要	International negotiations on climate change, along with recent upsurges in migration across the Mediterranean Sea, have highlighted the need to better understand the possible effects of climate change on human migration-in particular, across national borders. Here we examine how, in the recent past (2000-2014), weather variations in 103 source countries translated into asylum applications to the European Union, which averaged 351, 000 per year in our sample. We find that temperatures that deviated from the moderate optimum (~20?C) increased asylum applications in a nonlinear fashion, which implies an accelerated increase under continued future warming. Holding everything else constant, asylum applications by the end of the century are predicted to increase, on average, by 28% (98, 000 additional asylum applications per year) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 4.5 and by 188% (660, 000 additional applications per year) under RCP 8.5 for the 21 climate models in the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP).
英文关键词	asylum seeker; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; environmental response; European Union; population migration; temperature profile; agriculture; Article; asylum application; climate change; controlled study; country economic status; environmental impact; environmental temperature; European Union; global climate; grid cell; gross national product; maize; migration; precipitation; prediction; priority journal; seasonal variation; simulation; social aspect; temperature dependence; temperature sensitivity; weather; article; climate; human; warming; Mediterranean Sea
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/244791
作者单位	School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Missirian A.,Schlenker W.. Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations[J],2017,358(6370).
APA	Missirian A.,&Schlenker W..(2017).Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations.Science,358(6370).
MLA	Missirian A.,et al."Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations".Science 358.6370(2017).