气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

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DOI	10.1126/science.1210299
	Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N
	Matei D.; Baehr J.; Jungclaus J.H.; Haak H.; Müller W.A.; Marotzke J.
发表日期	2012
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	76
结束页码	79
卷号	335 期号:6064
英文摘要	Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5°N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5°N until at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability.
英文关键词	forecasting method; geostrophic flow; meridional circulation; prediction; article; Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; climate; forecasting; prediction; priority journal; scoring system; sea; sea surface temperature; zonation; Atlantic Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/244678
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany; Institute of Oceanography, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Matei D.,Baehr J.,Jungclaus J.H.,et al. Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N[J],2012,335(6064).
APA	Matei D.,Baehr J.,Jungclaus J.H.,Haak H.,Müller W.A.,&Marotzke J..(2012).Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N.Science,335(6064).
MLA	Matei D.,et al."Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N".Science 335.6064(2012).