气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.aal4369
	Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
	Hsiang S.; Kopp R.; Jina A.; Rising J.; Delgado M.; Mohan S.; Rasmussen D.J.; Muir-Wood R.; Wilson P.; Oppenheimer M.; Larsen K.; Houser T.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	1362
结束页码	1369
卷号	356 期号:6345
英文摘要	Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors - agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor - increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	climate change; climate prediction; design method; econometrics; environmental economics; environmental policy; risk assessment; twenty first century; agriculture; Article; climate change; commercial phenomena; cost benefit analysis; crime; economic evaluation; energy; environmental temperature; hurricane; mortality; policy; priority journal; process model; sea level rise; seashore; United States; article; gross national product; human; United States; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/244078
作者单位	Global Policy Laboratory, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Department of Economics, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Energy Resource Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Rhodium Group, New York, NY, United States; Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hsiang S.,Kopp R.,Jina A.,et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States[J],2017,356(6345).
APA	Hsiang S..,Kopp R..,Jina A..,Rising J..,Delgado M..,...&Houser T..(2017).Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States.Science,356(6345).
MLA	Hsiang S.,et al."Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States".Science 356.6345(2017).