气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

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DOI	10.1126/science.abd9338
	Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19
	Brauner J.M.; Mindermann S.; Sharma M.; Johnston D.; Salvatier J.; Gavenčiak T.; Stephenson A.B.; Leech G.; Altman G.; Mikulik V.; Norman A.J.; Monrad J.T.; Besiroglu T.; Ge H.; Hartwick M.A.; Teh Y.W.; Chindelevitch L.; Gal Y.; Kulveit J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0036-8075
卷号	371 期号:6531
英文摘要	Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small. © 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	COVID-19; disease transmission; disease treatment; empirical analysis; medicine; seasonality; state role; adolescent; adult; aged; Article; child; commercial phenomena; coronavirus disease 2019; crowding (area); education; government; human; implementation science; infection fatality rate; infection prevention; information processing; mortality rate; nonpharmaceutical intervention; pandemic; stay-at-home order; therapy; virus transmission; Asia; Bayes theorem; communicable disease control; epidemiology; Europe; health care policy; pandemic; prevention and control; school; theoretical model; university; Asia; Bayes Theorem; Commerce; Communicable Disease Control; COVID-19; Europe; Government; Health Policy; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics; Physical Distancing; Schools; Universities
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243142
作者单位	Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; College of Engineering and Computer Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States; Independent scholar, Prague, Czech Republic; Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; School of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; School of Medical Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; Independent scholar, London, United Kingdom; Mathematical, Physical and Life Sciences (MPLS) Doctoral Training Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, Unite...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brauner J.M.,Mindermann S.,Sharma M.,et al. Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19[J],2021,371(6531).
APA	Brauner J.M..,Mindermann S..,Sharma M..,Johnston D..,Salvatier J..,...&Kulveit J..(2021).Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.Science,371(6531).
MLA	Brauner J.M.,et al."Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19".Science 371.6531(2021).