气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A New Method to Determine the Upper Boundary Condition for a Permafrost Thermal Model: An Example from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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DOI	10.1002/ppp.1755
	A New Method to Determine the Upper Boundary Condition for a Permafrost Thermal Model: An Example from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
	Zhang, Mingyi; Min, Ki-Hong; Wu, Qingbai; Zhang, Jianming; Harbor, Jon
发表日期	2012
ISSN	1045-6740
EISSN	1099-1530
起始页码	301
结束页码	311
卷号	23 期号:4
英文摘要	Assessing possible permafrost degradation related to engineering projects, climate change and land use change is of critical importance for protecting the environment and in developing sustainable designs for vital infrastructure in cold regions. A major challenge in modelling the future degradation of permafrost is finding ways to constrain changes in the upper thermal boundary condition over time and space at appropriate scales. Here, we report on an approach designed to predict time series of air, ground surface and shallow ground temperatures at a spatial scale on the order of 102?m2 for engineering design of a railway or highway project. The approach uses a regional-scale atmospheric model to downscale global climate model output, and then stepwise multiple regression to develop an equation that provides a best-fit prediction of site-specific observational data using bilinearly interpolated output from the atmospheric model. This approach bridges the scale difference between atmospheric climate models and permafrost thermal models, and allows for a wider range of factors to be used in predicting the thermal boundary condition. For a research site located in Beiluhe, China, close to the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, a comparison of model predictions with observational data not used in the construction of the model shows that this method can be used with a high degree of accuracy to determine the upper boundary condition for a permafrost thermal model. Once a model is constructed, it can be used to predict future changes in boundary condition parameters under different greenhouse emission scenarios for climate change. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
英文关键词	upper boundary condition; permafrost thermal model; regional climate model; regression model; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目	Geography, Physical ; Geology
WOS关键词	DUCT-VENTILATED EMBANKMENT ; FORECAST SYSTEM ; NUMERICAL-MODEL ; ENERGY-BALANCE ; ACTIVE LAYER ; REGIONS ; DEGRADATION ; TEMPERATURE ; REGIME ; EAST
WOS记录号	WOS:000312450600005
来源期刊	PERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/240307
作者单位	[Zhang, Mingyi; Wu, Qingbai; Zhang, Jianming] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Frozen Soil Engn, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Mingyi; Min, Ki-Hong; Harbor, Jon] Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA; [Min, Ki-Hong] Kyungpook Natl Univ, Ctr Atmospher Remote Sensing, Taegu, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Mingyi,Min, Ki-Hong,Wu, Qingbai,et al. A New Method to Determine the Upper Boundary Condition for a Permafrost Thermal Model: An Example from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2012,23(4).
APA	Zhang, Mingyi,Min, Ki-Hong,Wu, Qingbai,Zhang, Jianming,&Harbor, Jon.(2012).A New Method to Determine the Upper Boundary Condition for a Permafrost Thermal Model: An Example from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.PERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES,23(4).
MLA	Zhang, Mingyi,et al."A New Method to Determine the Upper Boundary Condition for a Permafrost Thermal Model: An Example from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau".PERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES 23.4(2012).