气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2021558118
	A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts
	Savage T.; Davis A.; Fischhoff B.; Morgan M.G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:21
英文摘要	Forecasts of the future cost and performance of technologies are often used to support decision-making. However, retrospective reviews find that many forecasts made by experts are not very accurate and are often seriously overconfident, with realized values too frequently falling outside of forecasted ranges. Here, we outline a hybrid approach to expert elicitation that we believe might improve forecasts of future technologies. The proposed approach iteratively combines the judgments of technical domain experts with those of experts who are knowledgeable about broader issues of technology adoption and public policy. We motivate the approach with results from a pilot study designed to help forecasters think systematically about factors beyond the technology itself that may shape its future, such as policy, economic, and social factors. Forecasters who received briefings on these topics provided wider forecast intervals than those receiving no assistance. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Debiasing; Expert elicitation; Overconfidence; Technology forecasting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adoption; decision making; forecasting; human; pilot study; public policy; retrospective study; review; social aspect; article
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238552
作者单位	Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Savage T.,Davis A.,Fischhoff B.,et al. A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts[J],2021,118(21).
APA	Savage T.,Davis A.,Fischhoff B.,&Morgan M.G..(2021).A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(21).
MLA	Savage T.,et al."A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.21(2021).