气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2103081118
	Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system
	Dietz S.; Rising J.; Stoerk T.; Wagner G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:34
英文摘要	Climate scientists have long emphasized the importance of climate tipping points like thawing permafrost, ice sheet disintegration, and changes in atmospheric circulation. Yet, save for a few fragmented studies, climate economics has either ignored them or represented them in highly stylized ways. We provide unified estimates of the economic impacts of all eight climate tipping points covered in the economic literature so far using a meta-analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with a modular structure. The model includes national-level climate damages from rising temperatures and sea levels for 180 countries, calibrated on detailed econometric evidence and simulation modeling. Collectively, climate tipping points increase the social cost of carbon (SCC) by ∼25% in our main specification. The distribution is positively skewed, however. We estimate an ∼10% chance of climate tipping points more than doubling the SCC. Accordingly, climate tipping points increase global economic risk. A spatial analysis shows that they increase economic losses almost everywhere. The tipping points with the largest effects are dissociation of ocean methane hydrates and thawing permafrost. Most of our numbers are probable underestimates, given that some tipping points, tipping point interactions, and impact channels have not been covered in the literature so far; however, our method of structural meta-analysis means that future modeling of climate tipping points can be integrated with relative ease, and we present a reduced-form tipping points damage function that could be incorporated in other IAMs. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate risk; Climate tipping points; Integrated assessment model; Social cost of carbon
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon; carbon dioxide; methane; Article; climate; climate change; climate economics; climate system tipping point; drought; econometric model; economic aspect; economic impact; economic loss; economics; environmental parameters; environmental temperature; flooding; global economic risk; gross national product; integrated assessment model; model; monsoon climate; permafrost; rain forest; risk; sea level rise; simulation; social cost of carbon; spatial analysis
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238423
作者单位	Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom; College of Earth, Ocean and Environment, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, United States; Department of Environmental Studies, Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University, New York, NY 10003, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dietz S.,Rising J.,Stoerk T.,et al. Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system[J],2021,118(34).
APA	Dietz S.,Rising J.,Stoerk T.,&Wagner G..(2021).Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(34).
MLA	Dietz S.,et al."Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.34(2021).