气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2104105118
	North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years
	Osman M.B.; Coats S.; Das S.B.; McConnell J.R.; Chellman N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:38
英文摘要	Reconstruction of the North Atlantic jet stream (NAJ) presents a critical, albeit largely unconstrained, paleoclimatic target. Models suggest northward migration and changing variance of the NAJ under 21st-century warming scenarios, but assessing the significance of such projections is hindered by a lack of long-term observations. Here, we incorporate insights from an ensemble of last-millennium water isotope-enabled climate model simulations and a wide array of mean annual water isotope (δ18O) and annually accumulated snowfall records from Greenland ice cores to reconstruct North Atlantic zonal-mean zonal winds back to the 8th century CE. Using this reconstruction we provide preobservational constraints on both annual mean NAJ position and intensity to show that late 20th- and early 21st-century NAJ variations were likely not unique relative to natural variability. Rather, insights from our 1,250 year reconstruction highlight the overwhelming role of natural variability in thus far masking the response of midlatitude atmospheric dynamics to anthropogenic forcing, consistent with recent large-ensemble transient modeling experiments. This masking is not projected to persist under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, however, with model projected annual mean NAJ position emerging as distinct from the range of reconstructed natural variability by as early as 2060 CE. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Greenland; Ice core; Jet stream; North Atlantic
语种	英语
scopus关键词	isotope; oxygen 18; snow; Article; Atlantic Ocean; carbon footprint; chemical composition; climate; climate change; greenhouse gas; Greenland; model; precipitation; simulation; stream (river)
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238382
作者单位	Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Sciences and Engineering, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States; Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States; Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Osman M.B.,Coats S.,Das S.B.,et al. North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years[J],2021,118(38).
APA	Osman M.B.,Coats S.,Das S.B.,McConnell J.R.,&Chellman N..(2021).North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(38).
MLA	Osman M.B.,et al."North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.38(2021).