气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01092-9
	Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes
	Fischer E.M.; Sippel S.; Knutti R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	689
结束页码	695
卷号	11 期号:8
英文摘要	Recent climate extremes have broken long-standing records by large margins. Such extremes unprecedented in the observational period often have substantial impacts due to a tendency to adapt to the highest intensities, and no higher, experienced during a lifetime. Here, we show models project not only more intense extremes but also events that break previous records by much larger margins. These record-shattering extremes, nearly impossible in the absence of warming, are likely to occur in the coming decades. We demonstrate that their probability of occurrence depends on warming rate, rather than global warming level, and is thus pathway-dependent. In high-emission scenarios, week-long heat extremes that break records by three or more standard deviations are two to seven times more probable in 2021–2050 and three to 21 times more probable in 2051–2080, compared to the last three decades. In 2051–2080, such events are estimated to occur about every 6–37 years somewhere in the northern midlatitudes. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237273
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fischer E.M.,Sippel S.,Knutti R.. Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes[J],2021,11(8).
APA	Fischer E.M.,Sippel S.,&Knutti R..(2021).Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes.Nature Climate Change,11(8).
MLA	Fischer E.M.,et al."Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes".Nature Climate Change 11.8(2021).