气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9
	Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure
	Geiger T.; Gütschow J.; Bresch D.N.; Emanuel K.; Frieler K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	861
结束页码	866
卷号	11 期号:10
英文摘要	Tropical cyclone (TC) impacts are expected to worsen under continued global warming and socio-economic development. Here we combine TC simulations with an impact model to quantify country-level population exposure to TC winds for different magnitudes of global mean surface temperature increase and future population distributions. We estimate an annual global TC exposure increase of 26% (33 million people) for a 1 °C increase in global mean surface temperature, assuming present-day population. The timing of warming matters when additionally accounting for population change, with global population projected to peak around mid-century and decline thereafter. A middle-of-the-road socio-economic scenario combined with 2 °C of warming around 2050 increases exposure by 41% (52 million). A stronger mitigation scenario reaching 2 °C around 2100 limits this increase to 20% (25 million). Rapid climate action therefore avoids interference with peak global population timing and limits climate-change-driven exposure. Cumulatively, over 1.8 billion people could be saved by 2100. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237219
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Climate and Environment Consultancy, Stahnsdorf, Germany; Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland; Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geiger T.,Gütschow J.,Bresch D.N.,et al. Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure[J],2021,11(10).
APA	Geiger T.,Gütschow J.,Bresch D.N.,Emanuel K.,&Frieler K..(2021).Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure.Nature Climate Change,11(10).
MLA	Geiger T.,et al."Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure".Nature Climate Change 11.10(2021).