气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal System

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2021JD034830
	Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal System
	Aquila V.; Baldwin C.; Mukherjee N.; Hackert E.; Li F.; Marshak J.; Molod A.; Pawson S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169-897X
卷号	126 期号:16
英文摘要	A contemporary seasonal forecasting system is used to study the impacts of a volcanic sulfate injection into the stratosphere on the seasonal forecasts for surface temperatures, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and precipitation. The focus is a case study of the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines and the period from July 1991 to February 1992. Version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system is used in this study. GEOS-S2S includes the GOddard Chemistry, Aerosols, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module, which allows to prognostically simulate aerosol distributions. GOCART is coupled to the radiation and cloud modules to include the impact of the eruption on forecasted radiation and precipitation. The coupled GEOS-S2S system was initialized in May 1991 with fields based on observations to produce ten-member 9-month forecasts with and without the volcanic sulfur injection. The results of these ensemble experiments demonstrate that including Mt. Pinatubo in seasonal forecasts would improve the forecasts of the 1991–1992 global mean temperature and precipitation but worsen the forecast of ENSO by strengthening of El Niño beyond what showed in observations. Most significant changes in the forecasts of temperatures and precipitation are limited to the tropics. The only land area where the inclusion of Pinatubo significantly lowered the forecasted precipitation is tropical Africa. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
英文关键词	ENSO; Pinatubo; precipitation; seasonal forecast; volcanic aerosols; volcanic eruptions
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237119
作者单位	Department of Environmental Science, American University, Washington, DC, United States; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States; Global Modeling Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, University Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aquila V.,Baldwin C.,Mukherjee N.,et al. Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal System[J],2021,126(16).
APA	Aquila V..,Baldwin C..,Mukherjee N..,Hackert E..,Li F..,...&Pawson S..(2021).Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal System.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(16).
MLA	Aquila V.,et al."Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal System".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.16(2021).