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| DOI | 10.1029/2021JD035094 |
| Subseasonal Prediction of the State and Evolution of the North Pacific Jet Stream | |
| Winters A.C. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 2169-897X |
| 卷号 | 126期号:17 |
| 英文摘要 | The state and evolution of the North Pacific jet (NPJ) stream strongly influences the character of the downstream synoptic-scale flow pattern over North America. This study employs data from nine models within the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Reforecast Database hosted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to examine the subseasonal (2 weeks–1 month) predictability of the NPJ through the lens of an NPJ phase diagram. The NPJ phase diagram provides a visual representation of the state and evolution of the NPJ with respect to the two leading modes of NPJ variability. The first mode of NPJ variability corresponds to a zonal extension or retraction of the climatological jet-exit region, whereas the second mode corresponds to a poleward or equatorward shift of the climatological jet-exit region. The analysis reveals that ensemble forecasts of the prevailing NPJ regime, as determined from the NPJ phase diagram, are skillful into week 3 of the forecast period. Forecasts initialized during a jet retraction, or verifying during a jet retraction and equatorward shift, generally feature the largest errors during the forecast period. Examination of the worst-performing 21-day forecasts from each model demonstrates that the worst-performing forecasts are uniformly associated with development, maintenance, and decay of upper-tropospheric ridges over the high-latitude North Pacific. These results demonstrate that bias-corrected NPJ phase diagram forecasts have the potential to identify periods that may exhibit enhanced forecast skill at subseasonal lead times based on the anticipated NPJ evolution. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| 英文关键词 | North Pacific jet stream; subseasonal prediction; weather regimes |
| 来源期刊 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237040 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Winters A.C.. Subseasonal Prediction of the State and Evolution of the North Pacific Jet Stream[J],2021,126(17). |
| APA | Winters A.C..(2021).Subseasonal Prediction of the State and Evolution of the North Pacific Jet Stream.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(17). |
| MLA | Winters A.C.."Subseasonal Prediction of the State and Evolution of the North Pacific Jet Stream".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.17(2021). |
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