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| DISES: Cumulative effects of ecological and social stressors on the dynamics of integrated ranching-wildlife systems: drought, wolves, and human decision-makers | |
| 项目编号 | 2109005 |
| Sophie Gilbert | |
| 项目主持机构 | Regents of the University of Idaho |
| 开始日期 | 2021-09-01 |
| 结束日期 | 08/31/2026 |
| 英文摘要 | As environmental changes intensify around the world, both humans and wildlife face greater uncertainty and risk, threatening both human livelihoods and wildlife biodiversity. This research seeks to understand how multiple sources of stress impact humans, free-ranging livestock, and wildlife in shared rangelands in the western US. Increasingly frequent and more severe droughts make plant forage for wild herbivores and cattle less predictable and abundant, even as the return of gray wolves to parts of the landscape increases predation risk. As a result, wildlife such as deer and elk, as well as free-ranging livestock, may be forced to trade off food and security, and ranchers grazing their cattle on public land may face more uncertainty. This research will assess (1) how drought and wolves interact to affect wild herbivores and free-ranging cattle distributions across the landscape, (2) how decision-makers respond to these two sources of stress, and (3) how information, provided via a new wildlife and plant forecasting application, is received and used by both ranchers and wildlife managers. The project will also increase public awareness of human and wildlife connections and interactions in rangeland ecosystems via a documentary film, as well as by training citizen scientists to classify camera-trapped images of rangeland wildlife. A diverse group of undergraduate and graduate students as well as a post-doctoral researcher will be trained over the course of this project. Outcomes of this project include a better understanding of how climate and carnivore risks affect human decision-making, as well as how humans impact rangeland food webs via cattle stocking and wildlife removal, potentially leading to increased opportunities for coexistence between humans and wildlife in changing environments. Ecological shifts brought about by climatic change can strongly interact with other sources of change, such as recolonizing large carnivores, to alter food web dynamics and potentially reduce ecosystem provisioning for humans. The uncertainty created by such interactions also challenges human decision-making. A critical gap exists in our knowledge of how climate change affects human-wildlife systems via wild food webs, and how natural resource decision-makers respond to such stress. We hypothesize that multiple environmental stressors (e.g., climate change and novel predators) will have complex and interactive effects on human-wildlife systems. Effects will likely occur via trophic interactions among predators, prey, domestic animals, and plants within shared food webs, potentially reducing the provisioning of humans from the shared ecosystem and human tolerance for predatory and competitive wildlife, and increasing uncertainty for natural resource decision-makers. There is a pressing need to advance models, tools and theory to (A) understand how multiple stressors interactively affect food webs in which humans and domestic animals are embedded, and (B) identify and quantify feedbacks among natural resource decision-makers and human-wildlife systems in response to multiple environmental stressors. Such information would assist in identifying potential “tipping points” in system resiliency and allow for better management of interacting wildland and agricultural systems. Using a factorial design of study sites across combinations of wolf presence and drought in Oregon and Idaho, we will study rancher-wildlife-plant dynamics. Data will stem from rancher surveys, wildlife camera grids, and ground-surveyed and remotely-sensed plant data. We will integrate social and ecological data into a structural equation modeling framework, which will drive ecological forecasts of predation and competition risk to livestock for ranchers and managers to use in future decision making. To understand natural resource manager decisions, which occur at larger spatial scales than rancher decisions, we will conduct a broad-scale analysis of the rangeland SES across the Western US using publicly-available wildlife and social data and remotely-sensed environmental characteristics. By analyzing decision-making across these spatial scales, we anticipate being able to identify key feedbacks, emergent phenomena, and potential tipping points in resilience for the human and wildlife components of the rangeland SES. This project is jointly funded by the Dynamics of Integrated Socio-Environmental Systems (DISES) and the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR). This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. |
| 资助机构 | US-NSF |
| 项目经费 | $1,597,830.00 |
| 项目类型 | Standard Grant |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/210992 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sophie Gilbert.DISES: Cumulative effects of ecological and social stressors on the dynamics of integrated ranching-wildlife systems: drought, wolves, and human decision-makers.2021. |
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