气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41561-021-00686-4
	Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat
	Stuart-Smith R.F.; Roe G.H.; Li S.; Allen M.R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	17520894
起始页码	85
结束页码	90
卷号	14 期号:2
英文摘要	A potential glacial lake outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) threatens Huaraz, a city of 120,000 people. In 1941, an outburst flood destroyed one-third of the city and caused at least 1,800 fatalities. Since pre-industrial times, Lake Palcacocha has expanded due to the retreat of Palcaraju glacier. Here we used observations and numerical models to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to the glacier’s retreat and glacial lake outburst flood hazard. We found that the magnitude of human-induced warming equals between 85 and 105% (5–95% confidence interval) of the observed 1 °C warming since 1880 in this region. We conclude that it is virtually certain (>99% probability) that the retreat of Palcaraju glacier to the present day cannot be explained by natural variability alone, and that the retreat by 1941 represented an early impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Our central estimate is that the overall retreat is entirely attributable to the observed temperature trend, and that the resulting change in the geometry of the lake and valley has substantially increased the outburst flood hazard. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	anthropogenic effect; flood; glacier; glacier retreat; greenhouse gas; natural hazard; outburst; Ancash; Cordillera Blanca; Cordillera Occidental [Peru]; Peru
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206961
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Oxford e-Research Centre, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stuart-Smith R.F.,Roe G.H.,Li S.,et al. Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat[J],2021,14(2).
APA	Stuart-Smith R.F.,Roe G.H.,Li S.,&Allen M.R..(2021).Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat.Nature Geoscience,14(2).
MLA	Stuart-Smith R.F.,et al."Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat".Nature Geoscience 14.2(2021).