气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Empirical estimate of forestation-induced precipitation changes in Europe

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-021-00773-6
	Empirical estimate of forestation-induced precipitation changes in Europe
	Meier R.; Schwaab J.; Seneviratne S.I.; Sprenger M.; Lewis E.; Davin E.L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	17520894
起始页码	473
结束页码	478
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	Land-cover changes can affect the climate by altering the water and energy balance of the land surface. Numerous modelling studies have indicated that alterations at the land surface can result in considerable changes in precipitation. Yet land-cover-induced precipitation changes remain largely unconstrained by observations. Here we use an observation-based continental-scale statistical model to show that forestation of rain-fed agricultural land in Europe triggers substantial changes in precipitation. Locally, we find an increase in precipitation following forestation, in particular in winter, which is supported by a paired rain-gauge analysis. In addition, forests are estimated to increase downwind precipitation in most regions during summer. By contrast, the downwind effect in winter is positive in coastal areas but near neutral and negative in Continental and Northern Europe, respectively. The combined local and non-local effects of a realistic reforestation scenario, constrained by sustainability safeguards, are estimated to increase summer precipitation by 7.6 ± 6.7% on average over Europe (0.13 ± 0.11 mm d–1), potentially offsetting a substantial part of the projected precipitation decrease from climate change. We therefore conclude that land-cover-induced alterations of precipitation should be considered when developing land-management strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	agricultural land; climate change; empirical analysis; energy balance; estimation method; land surface; precipitation (climatology); reforestation; sustainability; Northern Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206937
作者单位	ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland; Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Meier R.,Schwaab J.,Seneviratne S.I.,et al. Empirical estimate of forestation-induced precipitation changes in Europe[J],2021,14(7).
APA	Meier R.,Schwaab J.,Seneviratne S.I.,Sprenger M.,Lewis E.,&Davin E.L..(2021).Empirical estimate of forestation-induced precipitation changes in Europe.Nature Geoscience,14(7).
MLA	Meier R.,et al."Empirical estimate of forestation-induced precipitation changes in Europe".Nature Geoscience 14.7(2021).