气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04435-5
	Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model
	Kourat T.; Smadhi D.; Mouhouche B.; Gourari N.; Mostofa Amin M.G.; Bryant C.R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2175
结束页码	2203
卷号	107 期号:3
英文摘要	Maintaining sustainability in rainfed wheat production under changing climate is a grave concern for food security in Algeria. This study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on rainfed wheat yield in the semiarid Eastern High Plains (Setif and Bordj Bou Arreridj (BBA)) in Algeria using AquaCrop model. For this purpose, the EURO-CORDEX climate projections by 2035–2064 and 2065–2094 were downscaled using ICHEC_KNMI model under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The crop model predicted wheat yield increase by 82–95% and 77–118% at Setif and by 8–16% and 133–135% at BBA under the RCP 4.5 (2035–64 and 2065–94) and RCP 8.5 (2035–64 and 2065–94) scenarios, respectively, compared to the yield of the baseline period of 1981–2010. Future yield improvement is due to the fertilizing effect of the elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere, which offsets the negative impacts of rising temperature, decreasing precipitations and the net solar radiation. The expected increase in yield is much higher under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5 because CO2 concentration is higher under RCP 8.5. The model predicted an increase in wheat water productivity because of the expected decrease in evapotranspiration losses. To adapt rainfed wheat to future climate change in the study area, early sowing in mid-October provides better yields because it allows the wheat crop to take more benefits from increased precipitation during the vegetative development stage and to avoid the spring warming temperature. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	AquaCrop model Downscaling climate data Evapotranspiration RCP scenarios Sowing date Wheat water productivity
英文关键词	climate change; climate effect; crop yield; downscaling; environmental assessment; evapotranspiration; future prospect; rainfed agriculture; semiarid region; sowing date; water availability; weather forecasting; wheat; Algeria
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206337
作者单位	Department Genie Rural, Ecole National Supérieure d’Agronomie d’El Harrach, Algiers, Algeria; Division Bioclimatologie, Station Mehdi Boualem, Baraki, Institut National de Recherche Agronomique, Algiers, Algeria; Office National de la Météorologie de Dar El Beida, Algiers, Algeria; Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, 2202, Bangladesh; Department of Geography, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kourat T.,Smadhi D.,Mouhouche B.,et al. Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model[J],2021,107(3).
APA	Kourat T.,Smadhi D.,Mouhouche B.,Gourari N.,Mostofa Amin M.G.,&Bryant C.R..(2021).Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model.Natural Hazards,107(3).
MLA	Kourat T.,et al."Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model".Natural Hazards 107.3(2021).