气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Economic value of tropical cyclone conditions of readiness

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04751-4
	Economic value of tropical cyclone conditions of readiness
	Gulati S.; Sampson C.R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1687
结束页码	1700
卷号	108 期号:2
英文摘要	U. S. Military bases are especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones (TCs) because they concentrate extremely expensive equipment in a small area. A TC hit at a base can result in upwards of 2 billion dollars in damage, as demonstrated by the recent loss of F-22 aircraft at Tyndall Air Base during Hurricane Michael. To mitigate these events, the Department of Defense defines tropical cyclone conditions of readiness (TCCOR), a set of preparedness levels that are adhered to by bases in preparation of an approaching TC. TCCOR are set by base commanders and are dependent on the likelihood of 50-knot sustained winds impacting the base within a forecast time. These TC-CORs generally drop from V (generally seasonal preparedness) to IV (50 kt or higher winds possible within 72 h); III (50 kt or higher winds possible within 48 h), II (50 kt or higher winds expected within 24 h), and I (50 kt or higher winds expected in 12 h or occurring now). Each TCCOR is associated with a specific set of preparedness actions whose cost generally increases as the TCCOR level drops. As preparing a base for a specific TCCOR level can be extremely time consuming and expensive, it is important that we assess the economic value of the preparation. In this work, we develop a simple cost-loss/savings model to estimate and compare the economic value of skillful TC forecasting against a no-skill forecast baseline. The cost-loss/savings model developed demonstrates that skilled forecasts offer considerable savings over non-skilled forecasts. The algorithm has been implemented in an Excel spreadsheet so that it can be customized to specific bases of interest. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Cost-loss model Tropical cyclone Tropical cyclone conditions of readiness Tropical cyclone forecast
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206252
作者单位	Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, United States; Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 93943, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gulati S.,Sampson C.R.. Economic value of tropical cyclone conditions of readiness[J],2021,108(2).
APA	Gulati S.,&Sampson C.R..(2021).Economic value of tropical cyclone conditions of readiness.Natural Hazards,108(2).
MLA	Gulati S.,et al."Economic value of tropical cyclone conditions of readiness".Natural Hazards 108.2(2021).