气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04506-1
	Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference
	Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia M.A.; Hernández-Urbina K.; Ramos-Hernández S.G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1011
结束页码	1035
卷号	106 期号:1
英文摘要	The 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano constitutes the worst volcanic disaster in Mexico producing more than 2000 fatalities, thousands of displaced people and severe economic losses. This eruption took by surprise authorities, population and scientists, thus preventing the implementation of timely and effective mitigation measures. Here, we use a Bayesian inference approach to provide simple, objective and quantitative schemes for long- and short-term hazard assessment for El Chichón volcano. For long-term assessment, we present the event tree for this volcano including the probabilities of different scenarios based on its past activity. For instance, the probability of at least one magmatic/hydromagmatic unrest episode (4.0%) producing an explosive eruption (75%) with VEI 4 (21.4%) in any 10-yt time interval is 0.64%. Moreover, we included additional nodes for the threatened zones and population according to the published hazards maps. For short-term assessment, we use a Bayesian method to examine the evolution of indicators derived from volcano monitoring. As a case study, we apply this method to the available data of the 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano. Our results show that this method is useful to identify indicators associated with different eruptive phases, recognize significant changes and underscore the lessons from this eruption. Furthermore, this method graphically depicts the evolution of the indicators, easing the communication with non-specialist during volcanic crises. When this highly explosive volcano reactivates again, the methods presented here can be used as a framework to analyze monitoring data and facilitate the implementation of timely mitigation actions. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
关键词	Bayesian inference El Chichón volcano Hazard assessment Volcanic eruption Volcanic hazard
英文关键词	Bayesian analysis; explosive volcanism; hazard assessment; socioeconomic impact; volcanic eruption; Chiapas; El Chichon; Mexico [North America]
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206073
作者单位	Instituto de Investigación en Gestión de Riesgo y Cambio Climático, Universidad de Ciencias y Artes de Chiapas, Libramiento Norte poniente, 1150, Lajas Maciel, Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chiapas 29039, Mexico
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia M.A.,Hernández-Urbina K.,Ramos-Hernández S.G.. Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference[J],2021,106(1).
APA	Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia M.A.,Hernández-Urbina K.,&Ramos-Hernández S.G..(2021).Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference.Natural Hazards,106(1).
MLA	Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia M.A.,et al."Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference".Natural Hazards 106.1(2021).