气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Application of probabilistic method in maximum tsunami height prediction considering stochastic seabed topography

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04283-3
	Application of probabilistic method in maximum tsunami height prediction considering stochastic seabed topography
	Zhang Z.; Luo C.; Zhao Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2511
结束页码	2530
卷号	104 期号:3
英文摘要	Uncertainty is a significant challenge in tsunami hazard analysis. Tsunami heights are affected by complex factors and change constantly during propagation. The heights of tsunami have random characteristics. This study proposes that the water depths (related to seabed topography) are the most important factors that affect tsunami height. But across the globe, a considerable area of seabed topography has not been measured. So it is necessary to use the method of uncertainty to consider the water depth. The Wiener process is utilized to quantify the random changes of the water depth, which can better describe the situation that water depths change in a non-monotonic way. Considering the uncertainty of water depth, a Weiner process-based probabilistic model was established for predicting the maximum tsunami height, which is different from the maximum tsunami height deterministic or stochastic model previously studied with higher prediction efficiency and good prediction accuracy. The probability distribution of maximum tsunami heights was calculated using the stochastic model. The mean value of the maximum tsunami heights was very similar to the average value of 165 actual observations of maximum tsunami heights collected from 1997 to 2017. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Maximum tsunami height Probabilistic model Risk prediction Stochastic water depth Wiener process
英文关键词	bottom topography; prediction; probability; risk assessment; stochasticity; tsunami event; water depth; wave height; wave modeling
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206048
作者单位	School of Civil Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, 410114, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Z.,Luo C.,Zhao Z.. Application of probabilistic method in maximum tsunami height prediction considering stochastic seabed topography[J],2020,104(3).
APA	Zhang Z.,Luo C.,&Zhao Z..(2020).Application of probabilistic method in maximum tsunami height prediction considering stochastic seabed topography.Natural Hazards,104(3).
MLA	Zhang Z.,et al."Application of probabilistic method in maximum tsunami height prediction considering stochastic seabed topography".Natural Hazards 104.3(2020).