气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The casualty prediction of earthquake disaster based on Extreme Learning Machine method

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03937-6
	The casualty prediction of earthquake disaster based on Extreme Learning Machine method
	Xing H.; Junyi S.; Jin H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	873
结束页码	886
卷号	102 期号:3
英文摘要	In the prediction of casualties of earthquake disaster, the traditional prediction method requires strict sample data, and it is necessary to manually set a large number of parameters, resulting in poor prediction accuracy and slow learning speed. This paper introduces the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) into the earthquake casualty prediction, aiming to improve the prediction accuracy. Through the data training, the ELM network structure of earthquake victims’ casualty prediction is established, and the number of hidden layer nodes and the excitation function are determined, which ensures the reliability of the ELM network prediction results. Based on the data of 84 groups of earthquake victims from China in 1970–2017, the ELM algorithm, BP neural network, SVM and modified partial Gaussian curve were compared and verified. The results show that the average relative error of ELM algorithm for earthquake disaster prediction is 3.37%, the coefficient of determination R-square is 0.96, the average relative error of injury prediction is 1.04%, and the coefficient of determination R-square is 0.97, which indicates that the ELM algorithm has good robustness and generalization ability. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Casualty prediction Earthquake disaster Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)
英文关键词	accuracy assessment; algorithm; disaster management; earthquake prediction; mortality; seismic hazard; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206008
作者单位	School of Economic and Management, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, 621010, China; Data 61, Commonwealth Science and Industry Research Organization, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xing H.,Junyi S.,Jin H.. The casualty prediction of earthquake disaster based on Extreme Learning Machine method[J],2020,102(3).
APA	Xing H.,Junyi S.,&Jin H..(2020).The casualty prediction of earthquake disaster based on Extreme Learning Machine method.Natural Hazards,102(3).
MLA	Xing H.,et al."The casualty prediction of earthquake disaster based on Extreme Learning Machine method".Natural Hazards 102.3(2020).