气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic assessment and study of earthquake recurrence models for entire Northeast region of India

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03909-w
	Probabilistic assessment and study of earthquake recurrence models for entire Northeast region of India
	Paul A.; Gupta S.; Ghosh S.; Choudhury D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	15
结束页码	45
卷号	102 期号:1
英文摘要	Northeast India is seismically most active region in India, and it falls under Zone V which represents the highest seismic risk in the country. This region has been experienced two great earthquakes like the 1897 Shillong (Mw 8.1) and the 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4) and several large earthquake (Mw ≥ 7) during last 122 years. Probabilistic approach and number statistical tools have been used by various researchers for finding the future earthquake recurrence rates. Using the earthquake catalogue, Gutenberg–Richter parameter has been estimated to evaluate seismic risk for six different regions: Eastern Himalayan, Indo-Burma region, Bengal Basin, Shillong Plateau, Mishmi Thrust, and Naga Thrust. Assuming that the earthquake occurrence is Poisson model, based on the obtained Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relations, the probability of occurrence of earthquake of specified magnitude in given time is estimated for six seismotectonic regions. Further in this study, we made an attempt to estimate the probability of earthquake using four known statistical models, namely Exponential, Rayleigh, Weibull, and Pareto. The whole region is divided into six tectonic blocks to estimate the probability of an earthquake (Mw ≥ 5.5) through the maximization of conditional probability of earthquake occurrence. Time intervals for the occurrence of the next large earthquake in the six regions have been estimated by the maximization of conditional probability of earthquake occurrence. Pareto distribution shows the highest conditional probability compared to other distribution although it shows the lowest recurrence time compared to others. Rayleigh shows the lowest conditional probability, and Exponential shows intermediate probabilities in between Weibull and Pareto distributions. Specified four typical probability density models have been validated with the predicted event in Eastern Himalayan and Naga Thrust for earthquake Mw ≥ 5.5 recorded event. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Bengal Basin (BB)Eastern Himalayan (EH)Exponential Gutenberg–Richter Indo-Burma region (IBR)Mishmi Thrust (MT)Pareto Rayleigh Shillong Plateau (SP)Weibull
英文关键词	earthquake catalogue; earthquake magnitude; earthquake recurrence; modeling; probability; risk assessment; seismicity; Bengal; Himalayas; India; Indo-Burma; Shillong Plateau
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205871
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Agartala, 799046, India; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Paul A.,Gupta S.,Ghosh S.,et al. Probabilistic assessment and study of earthquake recurrence models for entire Northeast region of India[J],2020,102(1).
APA	Paul A.,Gupta S.,Ghosh S.,&Choudhury D..(2020).Probabilistic assessment and study of earthquake recurrence models for entire Northeast region of India.Natural Hazards,102(1).
MLA	Paul A.,et al."Probabilistic assessment and study of earthquake recurrence models for entire Northeast region of India".Natural Hazards 102.1(2020).