气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04097-3
	Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C
	Marengo J.A.; Cunha A.P.M.A.; Nobre C.A.; Ribeiro Neto G.G.; Magalhaes A.R.; Torres R.R.; Sampaio G.; Alexandre F.; Alves L.M.; Cuartas L.A.; Deusdará K.R.L.; Álvala R.C.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2589
结束页码	2611
卷号	103 期号:2
英文摘要	Historically, during periods of extreme drought, food security in the drylands of the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) is under severe risk due to agricultural collapse. The drought that started in 2012 continues to highlight the vulnerability of this region, and arid conditions have been detected during the last years mainly in the central semiarid region, covering almost 2% of the NEB. Climate projections show an increase in the area under water stress condition, covering 49% and 54% of the NEB region by 2700 and 2100, respectively, with a higher likelihood with warming above 4 °C. The projections of vegetative stress conditions derived from the empirical model for Vegetation Health Index (VHI) are consistent with projections from vegetation models, where semi-desert types typical of arid conditions would replace the current semiarid bushland vegetation (“caatinga”) by 2100. Due to the impacts of the 2012–2017 drought, public policies have been implemented to reduce social and economic vulnerability for small farmers but are not enough as poor population continues to be affected. In the long term, to make the semiarid less vulnerable to drought, strengthened integrated water resources management and a proactive drought policy are needed to restructure the economy. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal climate forecasting provides means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, leading to disaster risk reduction through early warning. Lastly, there is an urgent need for integrated assessments because the possibility that under permanent drought conditions with warming above 4 °C, arid conditions would prevail in NEB since 2060. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Caatinga Climate change Climate change impacts Northeast Brazil Risk of aridization Vegetation stress hazard
英文关键词	arid region; caatinga; drought; global warming; risk assessment; vegetation index; vulnerability; water stress; Brazil
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205820
作者单位	National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, São José Dos Campos, São Paulo 12247-016, Brazil; Institute for Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-060, Brazil; World Resources Institute-Brazil, São Paulo, São Paulo 05422-030, Brazil; Center for Strategic Studies, CGEE, Brasilia DF, Brasilia 70308-200, Brazil; Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajuba, Itajuba, Minas Gerais 37500-903, Brazil; Earth System Science Center, National Institute for Space Research, São José Dos Campos, São Paulo 12227-010, Brazil; Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo 12230-000, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marengo J.A.,Cunha A.P.M.A.,Nobre C.A.,et al. Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C[J],2020,103(2).
APA	Marengo J.A..,Cunha A.P.M.A..,Nobre C.A..,Ribeiro Neto G.G..,Magalhaes A.R..,...&Álvala R.C.S..(2020).Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C.Natural Hazards,103(2).
MLA	Marengo J.A.,et al."Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C".Natural Hazards 103.2(2020).