气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04003-x
	Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy
	Ho H.C.; Wai K.M.; He M.; Chan T.-C.; Deng C.; Wong M.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	623
结束页码	637
卷号	103 期号:1
英文摘要	In this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with mortality between 2001 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2014, to estimate the elevated risk of a 2050 heat event. We included change in daytime versus nighttime and urban versus rural temperatures as factors to project mortality, to evaluate the potential influence of climate change on mortality risk. Increases of 2.9 °C and 2.6 °C in maximum and minimum air temperature are projected in a 2050 heat event, with a day and a night that will have respective temperatures 9.8 °C and 4.9 °C higher than 2001–2014. Significantly higher mortality risk is forecasted in 2050 compared to 2001–2014 (IRR 1.721 [1.650, 1.796]) and 2011–2014 (IRR 1.622 [1.547, 1.701]) without consideration of temperature change. After consideration of changing temperature, change in maximum temperature in rural areas will induce the highest mortality risk during 2050, possibly due to rapid urbanization across the city, and with the second highest mortality risk induced by the change in minimum temperature in urbanized areas, possibly because local people in the city have been adapted to the maximum level of urban thermal stress during a summer day. Improvements to heat warning systems and sustainable planning protocols are urgently needed for climate change mitigation. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Community planning Extreme heat Policy implications Projected mortality Urban health risk WRF
英文关键词	air temperature; climate change; health policy; heat wave; local participation; mortality risk; subtropical region
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205725
作者单位	Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong; College of Engineering, Shantou University, Shantou, China; Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong; Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei City, Taiwan; Department of Geography, State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, United States; Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong; Research Institute for Sustainable Urban Development, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ho H.C.,Wai K.M.,He M.,et al. Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy[J],2020,103(1).
APA	Ho H.C.,Wai K.M.,He M.,Chan T.-C.,Deng C.,&Wong M.S..(2020).Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy.Natural Hazards,103(1).
MLA	Ho H.C.,et al."Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy".Natural Hazards 103.1(2020).