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| DOI | 10.1007/s11069-020-04289-x |
| An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones | |
| Glazer R.H.; Ali M.M. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0921030X |
| 起始页码 | 2635 |
| 结束页码 | 2644 |
| 卷号 | 104期号:3 |
| 英文摘要 | The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the most dangerous tropical cyclone (TC) region to humans in the world due to a combination of geographical and environmental factors. TC potential intensity (PI) estimates are a useful forecasting tool for evaluating favorable thermodynamic conditions for TC intensification; however, it assumes an idealized environment which omits several TC–environmental interactions. The present study compares the PI calculated using the SST (SST-PI) and the PI calculated taking into account ocean surface cooling and vertical wind shear (Environmental-PI) to the intensification rates of BoB TCs. A significant improvement is found in terms of explained variance when using Env-PI (13.5%) rather than SST-PI (3.5%). For slower moving TCs, the improvement is larger between Env-PI (25.5%) and SST-PI (4.9%). This study demonstrates that including an estimate of both oceanic and dynamical TC interactions in PI estimates lead to an improved estimate of future TC intensification in the BoB. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. |
| 关键词 | Bay of BengalPotential intensityTropical cyclones |
| 英文关键词 | cooling; estimation method; thermodynamics; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting; wind shear; Bay of Bengal; Indian Ocean |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Natural Hazards
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205706 |
| 作者单位 | Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; AP Disaster Management Authority, Kunchanapalli, India |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Glazer R.H.,Ali M.M.. An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones[J],2020,104(3). |
| APA | Glazer R.H.,&Ali M.M..(2020).An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones.Natural Hazards,104(3). |
| MLA | Glazer R.H.,et al."An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones".Natural Hazards 104.3(2020). |
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