气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-019-03815-w
	Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment
	Correa O.; García F.; Bernal G.; Cardona O.D.; Rodriguez C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	345
结束页码	361
卷号	100 期号:1
英文摘要	A methodology to define rainfall-landslide thresholds, using a probabilistic model in which the accumulated rainfall at any time is treated as a random variable, is proposed. The region under study is divided into areas of homogeneous rain hazard. For each homogeneous area, a probability model is fitted using state-of-the-art statistical methods, for each accumulation time considered. Thresholds are obtained by the definition of confidence intervals. Instantaneous accumulated rains, measured in real-time, are used to calculate the instantaneous probabilities of a landslide at each area and accumulation time. The maximum instantaneous probability determines the critical accumulated rain and sets the issued warning level. In addition, the model is tested, retrospectively, with the data for the disaster of April 19, 2017, in Manizales, Colombia, where 38 rainfall-triggered landslides killed 17 people and affected more than 3126 families. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Landslides Probabilistic model Rainfall thresholds Warning systems
英文关键词	early warning system; hazard assessment; landslide; probability; rainfall; real time; trigger mechanism; Caldas; Colombia; Manizales
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205638
作者单位	Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Colombia; Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Correa O.,García F.,Bernal G.,et al. Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment[J],2020,100(1).
APA	Correa O.,García F.,Bernal G.,Cardona O.D.,&Rodriguez C..(2020).Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment.Natural Hazards,100(1).
MLA	Correa O.,et al."Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment".Natural Hazards 100.1(2020).