气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contraction and convergence of in-use metal stocks to meet climate goals

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102284
	Contraction and convergence of in-use metal stocks to meet climate goals
	Watari T.; Nansai K.; Nakajima K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	9593780
卷号	69
英文摘要	The foundations of modern society are based on metals, yet their production is currently placing considerable strain on the Earth's carrying capacity. Here, we develop a century-long scenario for six major metals (iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel) harmonized with climate goals, with the goal of establishing science-based targets. We show that for the metal sector to contribute proportionally to emission reductions targets of the industrial sector, global in-use metal stocks need to converge from the current level of around 4 t/capita to about 7 t/capita. This will require today's high-income countries to contract their per capita stock from current levels of about 12 t/capita to make room for growth in countries that are presently classified as middle- and low-income countries. In such a contraction and convergence scenario, primary production of all six metals will peak by 2030, and secondary production will surpass primary production by at least 2050. Consequently, cumulative ore requirements over the 21st century will remain below currently identified resources, implying that natural ore extraction will be limited by emissions budgets before existing resources can be depleted. Importantly, realizing such system changes will require urgent and concerted international efforts involving all countries, but specific responsibilities will vary according to income level. Namely, wealthy countries will need to use existing metal stocks more intensively and for longer periods to reduce stock replacement demand, while poor countries will need to develop long-lasting and material-efficient infrastructure to curtail stock expansion demand in the first half of the 21st century. © 2021 The Author(s)
关键词	Climate change Decoupling Inequality Material flow analysis Science-based targets
英文关键词	acoustic emission; climate effect; low income population; metal; metals industry; Matthiola
语种	英语
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205557
作者单位	Global Resource Sustainability Research Section, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan; Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8563, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Watari T.,Nansai K.,Nakajima K.. Contraction and convergence of in-use metal stocks to meet climate goals[J],2021,69.
APA	Watari T.,Nansai K.,&Nakajima K..(2021).Contraction and convergence of in-use metal stocks to meet climate goals.Global Environmental Change,69.
MLA	Watari T.,et al."Contraction and convergence of in-use metal stocks to meet climate goals".Global Environmental Change 69(2021).