气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102275
	Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union
	Cottier F.; Salehyan I.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	9593780
卷号	69
英文摘要	The so-called ‘European Migrant Crisis’ has been blamed on armed conflict and economic misery, particularly in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some have suggested that this process has been exacerbated by climate change and weather events. In this paper, we evaluate these claims, focusing on the role of droughts in influencing irregular migration flows to the European Union. Drawing on temporally disaggregated data on the detection of unauthorized migrants at EU external borders, we examine how weather shocks affect irregular migration. We show that weather events may indeed influence migration. Yet, in contradiction to the findings from recent research, we find no evidence that a drought in a sending country increases unauthorized migration to the EU. If anything, and while not entirely conclusive, the incidence of drought seems rather to exert a negative, albeit moderate, impact on the size of migration flows, in particular for countries dependent on agriculture. Conversely, higher levels of rainfall increase migration. We interpret this as evidence that international migration is cost-prohibitive, and that adverse weather shocks reinforce existing financial barriers to migration. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	climate change; drought; European Union; extreme event; international migration; rainfall; spatiotemporal analysis; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa
语种	英语
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205490
作者单位	Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, United States; Department of Political Science, University of North Texas, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cottier F.,Salehyan I.. Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union[J],2021,69.
APA	Cottier F.,&Salehyan I..(2021).Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union.Global Environmental Change,69.
MLA	Cottier F.,et al."Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union".Global Environmental Change 69(2021).