气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China under increasing and fluctuating demand: A quantitative analysis

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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112221
	Optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China under increasing and fluctuating demand: A quantitative analysis
	Li T.; Liu P.; Li Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	03014215
卷号	152
英文摘要	Reducing carbon emissions in China is critical to global low-carbon transition. Switching coal to natural gas in end-use sectors is a key mitigation strategy in China, whilst insufficient natural gas reserve capacity hinders the growth of natural gas consumption. Besides strategic reserves, peak-shaving reserves are vital to tackle seasonal demand fluctuation. Identifying an appropriate scale of natural gas reserves can significantly reduce costs, whilst current studies focus on strategic reserves. In this paper, a multi-scale method is proposed to quantify the optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China, which combines three sub-models with matched temporal-spatial resolutions tackling daily, monthly peak-shaving reserves and strategic reserves respectively. Results show that the optimal scale of natural gas reserves is 14.2 percent of annual demand, higher than the level of 5.2 percent in 2017, and lower than policy targets of 15.6 percent. Results reflect the serious shortage of reserve capacity and the need of fast expansion, whilst pointing out that a small reduction in policy targets can support natural gas growth at lower costs. The optimal scale of daily, monthly peak-shaving reserves and strategic reserves is pointed out, which is 0.6, 8 and 5.6 percent of annual demand respectively. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Natural gas reserve Optimal scale Peak-shaving reserves Strategic reserves
英文关键词	Carbon; Coal industry; Cost reduction; Gas industry; Gases; Natural gas; Low-carbon transitions; Mitigation strategy; Multiscale method; Natural gas consumption; Natural gas growth; Natural gas reserves; Reserve capacity; Spatial resolution; Proven reserves; carbon emission; emission control; energy use; natural gas; quantitative analysis; spatial resolution; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205214
作者单位	State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Energy and Power Engineering, Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li T.,Liu P.,Li Z.. Optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China under increasing and fluctuating demand: A quantitative analysis[J],2021,152.
APA	Li T.,Liu P.,&Li Z..(2021).Optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China under increasing and fluctuating demand: A quantitative analysis.Energy Policy,152.
MLA	Li T.,et al."Optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China under increasing and fluctuating demand: A quantitative analysis".Energy Policy 152(2021).