气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111215
	China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends
	Yu J.; Shao C.; Xue C.; Hu H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	03014215
卷号	138
英文摘要	In order to explore the decoupling relationship and its influence factors between the growth of China's civil aviation sector and carbon emissions, as well as to forecast future CO2 emissions, the extended log-mean Divisia index model (LMDI), Tapio decoupling model and an emission prediction model were applied in this study. The results show the following. (1) Total carbon emissions fluctuate on an overall upward trend, but the level of oil consumption per revenue tonne-kilometers (RTK) shows a steady downward trend. (2) Among the four main factors, the “transportation amount growth” factor contributed most to CO2 emissions increases; followed by transport structure adjustment effects and alternative fuel effects. The “energy consumption intensity” factor plays a major role in inhibiting CO2 emissions. (3) The decoupling state of civil aviation predominantly stayed in a weak decoupling prior to 1988, expansive coupling and expansive negative decoupling during 1988–2000, and expansive coupling post-2000, which implies that the government should take comprehensive measures to reduce CO2 emissions. (4) Based on eight scenarios, China's civil aviation sector is predicted to be responsible for 0.13 Gt of CO2 emissions by 2020. Between 2020 and 2050, CO2 emissions may increase by a factor 1.6 to 3.9. © 2019
关键词	Civil aviation CO2 emissions Decoupling analysis Future trend LMDI
英文关键词	Aircraft; Carbon; Civil aviation; Energy utilization; Oil well logging; CO2 emissions; Decomposition analysis; Decoupling analysis; Energy consumption intensity; Future trends; LMDI; Log mean divisia indices; Transport structure; Carbon dioxide; aircraft emission; alternative fuel; carbon emission; decomposition analysis; fuel consumption; prediction; trend analysis; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204946
作者单位	China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, Beijing, 10028, China; College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu J.,Shao C.,Xue C.,et al. China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends[J],2020,138.
APA	Yu J.,Shao C.,Xue C.,&Hu H..(2020).China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends.Energy Policy,138.
MLA	Yu J.,et al."China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends".Energy Policy 138(2020).