气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111748
	Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4
	Tóth B.T.; Kotek P.; Selei A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	03014215
卷号	146
英文摘要	The Russian gas transit through Ukraine and the possibility of circumnavigating the historically dominant route poses a serious challenge to European gas markets. With the application of market modelling tools, this paper examines Russian export strategies to Europe using different transit route combinations. Although the cessation of Ukrainian transit would not endanger the security of gas supply in Europe, it would result in higher prices in all scenarios. In scenarios that include Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2, Ukrainian transit is non-essential for Russia to maintain its current share of EU gas imports. At the same time, the results show that limiting Ukrainian transit is less profitable for Russia: even if all the planned infrastructure is completed, shutting this route would result in losses of close to 5 billion € per year in Russian gas sales. Since it appears inevitable that Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 will be built, a no transit scenario is a real possibility thereafter. In this case the V4 should lobby for Balkan Stream, with investment costs borne by Gazprom. However, if there are continued deliveries via Ukraine there is no need for Balkan Stream. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Gas market modelling Gas transit Geopolitics Russia V4 Welfare analysis
英文关键词	Commerce; Costs; Investments; Current share; European gas markets; Export strategies; Investment costs; Landscape effects; Market modelling; Natural gas infrastructure; Transit scenarios; Gases; energy market; export; gas supply; infrastructure; investment; natural gas; security; Russian Federation
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204889
作者单位	REKK, Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest Fővám Tér 81093, Hungary
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tóth B.T.,Kotek P.,Selei A.. Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4[J],2020,146.
APA	Tóth B.T.,Kotek P.,&Selei A..(2020).Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4.Energy Policy,146.
MLA	Tóth B.T.,et al."Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4".Energy Policy 146(2020).