气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU

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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111726
	An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU
	Nieto J.; Carpintero Ó.; Lobejón L.F.; Miguel L.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	03014215
卷号	145
英文摘要	The Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Ecological macroeconomics Energy roadmap 2050 Energy transitions Input-output analysis Integrated assessment model
英文关键词	Ecology; Energy efficiency; Energy utilization; International trade; Metal drawing; Productivity; Ecological economics; Emissions mitigation; Industrial policies; Input output analysis; Integrated assessment models; Labour productivities; Macroeconomic impact; Modelling methodology; Economic analysis; alternative energy; energy market; energy planning; energy policy; energy resource; energy use; European Union; input-output analysis; macroeconomics; transitional economy; Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204797
作者单位	Department of Applied Economics, University of Valladolid, Av. Valle Esgueva 6, Spain; Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce, s/n, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nieto J.,Carpintero Ó.,Lobejón L.F.,et al. An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU[J],2020,145.
APA	Nieto J.,Carpintero Ó.,Lobejón L.F.,&Miguel L.J..(2020).An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU.Energy Policy,145.
MLA	Nieto J.,et al."An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU".Energy Policy 145(2020).