气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Shale gas potential in China: A production forecast of the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation and implications for future development

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111868
	Shale gas potential in China: A production forecast of the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation and implications for future development
	Chen Y.; Xu J.; Wang P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	03014215
卷号	147
英文摘要	Developing the abundant shale gas in China is a potential means to address the country's challenges in air pollution and carbon emissions. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the production potential of the most promising shale gas play—the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation (WL) in China. We use a Difference-Index analogy method and well-level U.S. shale gas drilling data to estimate the production potential and use a scenario simulation method to propose optimal drilling plans. The results show that the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation has the potential to produce 70 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year (Bcm/yr), which is 60% of the gas imported into China in 2018. With technology improvement and drilling of more wells, the target of 80–100 Bcm/yr set by the government can be achieved solely by extraction from WL. We find that shale gas drilling is profitable with a well-head price of 1.5 Chinese Yuan per cubic meter. The study indicates that a shale gas boom in China is possible, depending on a more competitive market both upstream and downstream. The successful development of shale gas will change the country's energy mix to become cleaner and lower-carbon. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Analogy method Drilling plan Longmaxi Natural gas market Shale gas boom
英文关键词	Carbon; Gas emissions; Infill drilling; Shale gas; Analogy method; Billion cubic meters; Carbon emissions; Competitive markets; Implications for futures; Production forecasts; Scenario simulations; Technology improvement; Wellheads; drilling; energy market; forecasting method; future prospect; gas production; gas well; natural gas; scenario analysis; shale gas; China; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204601
作者单位	Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao Alley, Haidian District, Beijing, 100190, China; National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen Y.,Xu J.,Wang P.. Shale gas potential in China: A production forecast of the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation and implications for future development[J],2020,147.
APA	Chen Y.,Xu J.,&Wang P..(2020).Shale gas potential in China: A production forecast of the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation and implications for future development.Energy Policy,147.
MLA	Chen Y.,et al."Shale gas potential in China: A production forecast of the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation and implications for future development".Energy Policy 147(2020).